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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."